Methodology

Every prediction on YearlyFuture is based on a real institutional report, peer-reviewed research or an official data source. This page explains how probabilities are assigned and updated.

1. How Predictions Are Built

• The topic is researched and only directly relevant sources are selected.
• Each source is verified to be real and reachable (dead links are not counted as sources).
• Videos, social media posts and marketing pages are never used as sources.
• The condition under which a prediction counts as fulfilled is written in advance.

2. How Probabilities Are Assigned

Probabilities combine the strength of the evidence, the time remaining until the target date and historical base rates for similar claims. Values are kept between 1% and 99%; no prediction is given 0% or 100%. 50% is used only when the evidence is genuinely balanced, never merely to avoid a decision.

3. Updates

Probabilities are not static. As new developments are reviewed, values move up or down, and every change is logged with its date. The "last probability update" shown on each prediction page is the output of this process.

4. Transparency and Limits

• AI assistance is used in the analysis; every prediction is published together with its sources and reasoning.
• A probability expresses uncertainty, not a guarantee.
• Nothing here is investment, legal or medical advice.
• For corrections and feedback: Contact.