Autonomous Vehicles Make Up 30% Of Global Vehicle Sales.

Autonomous Vehicles Make Up 30% of Global Vehicle Sales

According to the YearlyFuture forecast, autonomous vehicles will account for 30% of global light vehicle sales in 2035. This rate means that the share of vehicles with autonomous driving support, which was only around 2% of total sales in 2024, will grow 15-fold in a decade.

What Is This Development?

An autonomous vehicle is a vehicle that can move under certain or all conditions without driver intervention. On the SAE International scale, Level 3, Level 4 and Level 5 fall within this scope; Level 2 still requires the driver to monitor. The forecast measures the share of Level 3 and above vehicles in new sales.

YearlyFuture is a platform that publishes sourced and measurable future forecasts for the period 2027-2050. In this forecast set, the 30% rate given for 2035 covers robotaxi fleets and individual sales together. Regulatory approvals in China, the US and Europe are the main variable determining the pace of this share.

Why Does It Matter?

A 30% share means that in the global light vehicle market of approximately 90 million units per year, 27 million vehicles are sold with autonomous hardware. This scale creates billions of dollars in new demand for lidar, camera and chip manufacturers. Insurance, fleet management and charging infrastructure business models are also rebuilt according to this change.

For Turkey, the impact is seen mainly on the supply chain and fleet leasing side. The Level 2+ capabilities Togg announced in 2024 prepare the ground for the transition to Level 3 after 2030. The sales opportunity to the European market grows for domestic software and sensor suppliers.

Evidence And Data

• According to the YearlyFuture forecast, the autonomous vehicle share rises to 12% in 2030, 30% in 2035 and 55% in 2040.
• The McKinsey 2023 report calculates the autonomous driving software and hardware market at 300-400 billion dollars by 2030.
• In China, Baidu Apollo Go operated robotaxis in more than 10 cities at the end of 2024; total fully autonomous kilometers exceeded 100 million.
• In the US, Waymo reached 150 thousand paid rides per week in 2024; the service continues in Phoenix, San Francisco and Los Angeles.
• The SAE International Level 3 definition was first applied in series production in 2021 with the Honda Legend.
• The European Union legalized Level 3 type approval in 2022 under UN-R157.

Timeline

• 2021: The Honda Legend received Level 3 traffic jam approval in Japan.
• 2022: UN-R157 entered into force; Level 3 vehicles became registrable in EU countries.
• 2023: Waymo and Cruise received permission for paid robotaxis at night in the US.
• 2024: Baidu Apollo Go switched to 24/7 fully autonomous operation in Wuhan.
• 2027: According to the YearlyFuture forecast, the global share exceeds 5%; China and the US rank first.
• 2030: The share rises to 12%; Level 4 truck transport runs on the first commercial routes.
• 2035: The share reaches 30%; Level 3 becomes standard equipment in Europe and Japan.

Frequently Asked Questions

What Is an Autonomous Vehicle?

An autonomous vehicle is a vehicle that can move under certain conditions without driver intervention at SAE Level 3 and above. At Level 3 the driver responds to a system request, at Level 4 and 5 this obligation is removed.

When Will Autonomous Vehicles Reach 30% of Sales?

According to the YearlyFuture forecast, this threshold is crossed in 2035. The share is projected at 12% in 2030 and 55% in 2040; the pace depends on regulatory approvals and cost reduction.

What Is the State of Autonomous Vehicle Sales in Turkey?

As of 2024, the type approval process for Level 3 vehicles continues in Turkey; sales are mainly limited to Level 2. The market is expected to open with Level 3 models from Togg and foreign brands after 2027.