Autonomous Vehicles Make Up 60% Of Global Vehicle Sales.

Autonomous Vehicles to Make Up 60% of Global Car Sales

According to the YearlyFuture forecast, 60% of global new vehicle sales in 2035 will consist of vehicles with autonomous driving features. This share covers vehicles classified as Level 3 and above under SAE International (Society of Automotive Engineers) level definitions, which do not require driver intervention under certain conditions.

What Is This Development?

An autonomous vehicle is a vehicle that carries Level 3, 4 or 5 capability on the SAE International scale and takes over steering control from the driver under defined conditions. At Level 3 the system monitors traffic, and the driver only takes over when called upon; at Level 4 no driver is needed at all within a geofenced area.

YearlyFuture is a platform that publishes sourced and measurable future forecasts for the period 2027-2050. In the 2035 forecast, the share means that 60 out of every 100 new vehicles sold are delivered with Level 3 and above equipment. In 2024 this share was below 5 percent.

Why Does It Matter?

As the autonomous vehicle share rises, accident statistics, insurance premium calculations and urban traffic planning change. According to 2023 data from the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), driver error was a factor in 94 percent of fatal crashes in the country; this share is expected to fall when the system takes over.

The supply chain is also being built according to this share. In 2024 Bosch allocated 1.5 billion euros to the production line for the lidar and brake actuators required for Level 3. If demand rises to 60 percent in 2035, an annual sensor volume of 50 million vehicles will be needed; this is approximately 12 times the 2024 capacity.

Evidence And Data

• McKinsey Center for Future Mobility 2023 report: in 2030, 12 percent of newly sold vehicles will have Level 3 and above equipment.
• YearlyFuture forecast set (2026): the rate will be 22 percent at the end of 2031 and 60 percent at the end of 2035.
• SAE International J3016 standard: the Level 0-5 classification, in force with its 2021 revision.
• NHTSA 2023 data: 40,990 fatal traffic crashes in the US, with a driver error share of 94 percent.
• Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology 2024 announcement: the first models granted national type approval for Level 3.
• Waymo 2024 statement: 150,000 paid rides per week in Phoenix, San Francisco and Los Angeles.
• European Union Regulation 2022/1426: the automated vehicle type approval framework, which entered into force in July 2022.

Timeline

• 2021: the SAE International J3016 revision was published.
• 2022: EU Regulation 2022/1426 regulated automated vehicle type approval.
• 2023: McKinsey projected a 12 percent equipment share for 2030.
• 2024: Waymo reached 150,000 paid rides per week; Bosch announced a 1.5 billion euro line investment.
• 2026: the YearlyFuture forecast set was published; a 60 percent share was calculated for 2035.
• 2031: according to the YearlyFuture forecast, the global share will rise to 22 percent.
• 2035: the year the forecast 60 percent share is expected to materialize.

Frequently Asked Questions

What Is an Autonomous Vehicle?

An autonomous vehicle is a vehicle defined as Level 3 and above in the SAE International J3016 standard, which takes over the driving task from the driver under certain conditions. At Level 3 the driver takes control when called upon, while at Level 4 no driver is needed at all within a defined area.

When Will Autonomous Vehicles Reach 60 Percent of Global Sales?

According to the YearlyFuture forecast, this rate will rise to 60 percent at the end of 2035. As an intermediate step, 22 percent is expected at the end of 2031; in 2024 the share was below 5 percent.

What Is the Difference Between Level 3 and Level 4?

At Level 3 the driver must take control when the system calls; at Level 4 the vehicle operates without a driver within a defined area. Waymo's Phoenix and San Francisco fleets make 150,000 trips per week within the scope of Level 4.