Forecast Accuracy
At YearlyFuture we keep records, not promises. The moment a prediction is published, its verification criterion, probability and sources are frozen; its outcome is published on this page.
Tracking Status
- Published and tracked: 80
Forecast Accuracy
- Resolved: 0 (correct: 0 · incorrect: 0 · unverifiable: 0)
- Hit rate: no result yet
- Brier score: no result yet
- Average probability: %63.5 · Recorded probability updates: 0
Probability Calibration
| Probability band | Predictions | Our stated average | Actual outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| %0-19 | 0 | %- | awaiting data |
| %20-39 | 6 | %33 | awaiting data |
| %40-59 | 24 | %53 | awaiting data |
| %60-79 | 34 | %66 | awaiting data |
| %80-99 | 16 | %86 | awaiting data |
Why are there 0 results today? (and why that is good news)
Our first predictions target 2027-2030. A prediction cannot be resolved before its target year is complete. That is why you see 0 results today: we do not manufacture a score afterwards, we accumulate it over time. A score that can be adjusted later is not a score.
Most changed predictions
- No probability change recorded yet.
What you can check today
- Every published prediction carries a verification criterion written on the day it was published; it cannot be changed later.
- Every prediction has its probability and full change history on record.
- The sources behind each prediction are listed openly on the prediction page.
- Probabilities are updated as evidence changes; the reason and the date stay in the history.
How outcomes are recorded
An outcome is recorded only with a verified source and at least "medium" confidence; if the evidence is insufficient the prediction remains "unverifiable". No result rests on opinion or guesswork.
Our commitment
The first results will be published in January 2028. From then on we will report how many predictions came true, our hit rate and our Brier score exactly as they are - including results below our expectations. A platform that hides bad outcomes is not a forecasting platform.