US Next-generation Geothermal (EGS) Electricity Capacity Is Expected To Exceed 10 Gigawatts By 2035.

Will US Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) Capacity Exceed 10 GW By 2035?

The US Department of Energy (DOE) and industry analysts project that next-generation geothermal, or Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), could exceed 10 gigawatts (GW) of installed electric capacity by 2035. This forecast is based on rapid technology advancements, federal incentives, and growing demand for 24/7 carbon-free power. Current pilot projects, such as Fervo Energy's Cape Station in Utah, are scaling quickly, but the 10 GW target depends on overcoming geological and regulatory challenges.

What Is The Current Status Of EGS Development In The US?

As of 2026, the first large-scale commercial EGS plant is under construction at Fervo Energy's Cape Station in Utah. The facility is expected to begin operations in mid-2026 with a gross capacity of 53 MW (28 MW net). By 2028, the project aims to expand to 400 MW, with permits allowing up to 2 GW. Two additional equivalent plants are planned at the same location, according to Fervo's public statements and DOE project databases. The DOE's Enhanced Geothermal Shot initiative targets reducing EGS costs to $70 per MWh by 2030, which would make it competitive with conventional power sources.

What Are The Key Drivers Behind The 10 GW EGS Forecast?

The DOE's 2023 "GeoVision" report outlines a scenario where EGS could provide 90 GW by 2050, with a near-term milestone of 10 GW by 2035. The International Energy Agency (IEA) also highlights geothermal's potential to supply 15% of global electricity growth by 2050 in a low-cost scenario. Key drivers include:

• Technology transfer: Horizontal drilling and hydraulic stimulation techniques from the oil and gas industry have reduced EGS costs by nearly 50% since 2020, as reported by Fervo Energy's 2024 project updates.
• AI data center demand: Hyperscale cloud providers are signing long-term power purchase agreements for firm, clean power. Fervo announced deals with Google and Microsoft in 2024-2025, according to company press releases.
• Federal incentives: The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provides a 30% investment tax credit for geothermal, and the DOE's loan program has committed over $1 billion to EGS projects, as per the DOE Loan Programs Office.
• Geographic expansion: Initial projects are in the western US (Utah, Nevada), but DOE expects EGS to spread to the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard by the 2040s, using deeper drilling and advanced stimulation methods.

What Are The Main Uncertainties For Reaching 10 GW EGS By 2035?

The most significant uncertainty is whether EGS can replicate the success seen in Utah's hot, dry rock formations in other geologies. For example, the eastern US has lower geothermal gradients, requiring deeper drilling and more complex fracture networks. Additionally, permitting timelines for federal lands can stretch beyond five years, as noted in the DOE's 2024 permitting review. Seismic risk, though low, has caused public opposition in some regions, such as the 2017 Pohang earthquake in South Korea, which was linked to EGS stimulation. The industry is addressing this through induced seismicity protocols, but public acceptance remains a hurdle.

How Does EGS Compare To Other Clean Energy Sources?

Unlike solar and wind, EGS provides baseload power with a capacity factor of 90% or higher, according to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This makes it a valuable complement to intermittent renewables. While the levelized cost of EGS is currently around $150/MWh (as per Fervo's 2025 disclosures), the DOE's cost reduction target of $70/MWh by 2030 would make it competitive with natural gas. In contrast, new solar and wind are already below $40/MWh, but they require storage to provide firm power. EGS also has a small land footprint and can be sited near existing transmission infrastructure.

Frequently Asked Questions

What Is Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) Technology?

EGS involves drilling deep wells (typically 2-4 km) into hot, low-permeability rock, then injecting water under high pressure to create fractures. This allows water to circulate, absorb heat, and return to the surface to drive turbines. Unlike conventional geothermal, EGS does not require natural hot water reservoirs, so it can be deployed in many regions. The DOE's GeoVision report estimates that EGS could access over 100 GW of economically viable resource in the US alone.

Which Companies Are Leading The EGS Market?

Fervo Energy is the frontrunner, with its Cape Station project in Utah and a 400 MW expansion planned by 2028. Other notable players include AltaRock Energy, which is developing EGS in Oregon, and Sage Geosystems, which is working on closed-loop systems in Texas. Major oil and gas companies, such as Chevron and BP, have also invested in geothermal startups, according to industry news reports from 2024-2025.

What Role Does The US Department Of Energy Play In Achieving The 10 GW Target?

The DOE supports EGS through research funding, loan guarantees, and technical assistance. The Enhanced Geothermal Shot aims to reduce costs by 90% by 2035, and the agency has allocated $165 million for pilot projects under the 2023 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. Additionally, the DOE's Geothermal Technologies Office publishes annual market reports that track installed capacity and project pipelines, which will serve as the verification source for the 10 GW milestone.

Sources: US DOE GeoVision Report (2023), DOE Enhanced Geothermal Shot, Fervo Energy press releases (2024-2025), International Energy Agency (IEA) Geothermal Report (2024), NREL geothermal analysis (2023), EIA Annual Energy Outlook (2025).