Autonomous Trucking In The US Becomes Cheaper Per Mile Than Human-driven Trucks In 2028, Starting The Commercial Transformation Of Long-haul Freight.

Autonomous Trucking To Be Cheaper Than Human-Driven Trucks In 2028?

The cost per mile of autonomous trucking in the United States is expected to fall to a lower level by 2028 compared to human-driven trucks. According to Goldman Sachs Research’s forecast, by that date, the total operating costs of autonomous trucks will drop below those of traditional trucks including driver costs. This threshold is considered the beginning of commercial transformation in long-haul freight transport.

Why Are Autonomous Truck Costs Decreasing?

The cost advantage of autonomous trucks stems from a rapid decline in hardware costs. The cost of equipping a truck with autonomous technology currently stands at approximately $150,000, but it’s projected to fall to $35,000-$40,000 as scale increases. This decrease will eliminate human-related costs such as driver wages, benefits, rest requirements, and legal working hour limits from the equation.

Which Segment Will Initiate Commercial Transformation?

The transformation is expected to begin in the short term with logistics firms experiencing driver shortages deploying autonomous fleets on fixed routes between highways and terminals. Full autonomy in urban distribution and scenarios involving challenging weather conditions will progress more slowly. However, 2028 will be recorded as the year when the human driver ceased to be the “default option” in highway transport.

Market Size and Economic Impact

Goldman Sachs Research forecasts that the global autonomous truck market will reach $560 billion by 2035. The US market is expected to be $16 billion in 2030 and $105 billion in 2035. This growth will bring about fundamental changes in logistics, including cost advantages as well as operational efficiency and safety.

Frequently Asked Questions

When Will The Cost Per Mile Of Autonomous Trucks Be Lower Than That Of Human-driven Trucks?

According to Goldman Sachs Research’s estimate, the total cost per mile of autonomous trucks in the United States will fall below that of human-driven trucks in 2028. This date is considered the beginning of commercial transformation.

What Is The Hardware Cost Of Autonomous Truck Technology?

Currently, it costs approximately $150,000 to convert a truck into an autonomous one. However, this cost is expected to drop to $35,000-$40,000 as scale increases. This decrease forms the basis of the cost advantage.

When Will The Autonomous Truck Market Reach A Significant Economic Volume?

Goldman Sachs Research forecasts that the global autonomous truck market will reach $560 billion by 2035. The US market is expected to be $16 billion in 2030 and $105 billion in 2035.