Global Carbon Capture And Storage (CCS) Capacity Will NOT Exceed The 100 Million Tonnes/year Threshold By The End Of 2027.

Can Global CCS Capacity Exceed 100 Million Tonnes In 2027?

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a technology frequently highlighted for climate goals. However, real-world capacity often falls short of expectations. In this analysis, we evaluate whether global CCS capacity can surpass the 100 million tonnes per year threshold by the end of 2027.

What Do The Current Situation And Growth Rate Indicate?

During the 2024-2025 period, capacity was around 50 million tonnes per year. Growth from existing sources is described as 'marginal.' This means capacity would need to double within two years, representing a significant leap. Many announced projects remain stuck in the engineering and financing stages. This causes a widening gap between announced and realized capacity. Therefore, the current pace suggests the threshold will not be exceeded.

Why Is The Verification Criterion Important?

To verify the prediction, the 2027 data from the IEA CCUS Projects Database will be used as a reference. This database is an international source that tracks projects worldwide. Reflecting the entire sector rather than a single project announcement, this data ensures the result is clarified on a comparable and authoritative basis. The criterion is based on showing that the capacity remains below the 100 million tonnes per year threshold.

Prediction and Probability Assessment

Our prediction is that global CCS capacity will not exceed the 100 million tonnes per year threshold by the end of 2027. We assess the probability of this prediction at 80%. Our reasoning is that current capacity is around 50 million tonnes per year and the growth rate remains insufficient. Since the realization rate of announced projects is low, reaching the symbolic threshold of 100 million tonnes per year seems unlikely based on current data. Therefore, CCS's contribution to climate goals should be evaluated based on actual operational capacity rather than announcements.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why Is CCS Capacity Growing So Slowly?

CCS projects require high-cost and long-term investments. Projects are frequently delayed during stages such as securing financing, engineering solutions, and permitting processes. Additionally, the inadequacy of carbon pricing mechanisms and the lack of economic incentives slow down project implementation.

Why Is The IEA CCUS Database A Reliable Source?

The IEA (International Energy Agency) is a reputable organization that collects energy data worldwide. The CCUS Projects Database tracks all global projects using a standardized methodology. This ensures that the data is comparable and verifiable.

What Happens If This Prediction Does Not Come True?

If capacity exceeds 100 million tonnes in 2027, it would mean that CCS technology is scaling faster than expected. This would be a positive development for climate goals. However, current data suggests that this scenario has a low probability.