Carbon Capture Facilities Begin Storing CO2 At The Million-tonne Scale.

Can Carbon Capture Facilities Store Millions Of Tons Of CO2 By 2027?

Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technologies aim to capture carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere or industrial sources and store it safely underground. Can these facilities achieve a multi-million ton storage capacity by 2027? Industry analyses and Belfer Center reports indicate that current facility capacities are rapidly increasing and new projects are being planned. In this regard, 2027 could be a critical turning point for scaling to multi-ton levels.

What Are The Current Status And Project Pipeline Saying?

Currently, direct air capture (DAC) facilities and CCUS projects operating worldwide have a total capacity below several million tons. However, the number of projects in development and planned is increasing year on year. Particularly in North America and Europe, new facilities supported by government incentives are expected to come online between 2025-2027. For example, the US’s 45Q tax credit and the European Union’s Innovation Fund are accelerating financing for large-scale projects. If these projects are completed, it would technically be possible for the total annual storage capacity to exceed several million tons in 2027.

Barriers to Scaling: Cost and Energy Needs

High costs and energy consumption are among the biggest challenges facing CCUS technologies. DAC facilities require significant amounts of heat and electricity to capture CO2 from the atmosphere. This drives per-ton operating costs to levels of $600-$1000. However, it is expected that costs will decrease thanks to integration with renewable energy sources and new generation liquid solvent technologies. For example, Climeworks’ facility in Iceland operates using geothermal energy, injecting carbon into basalt rocks, and this method promises to reduce costs.

Increasing Importance of Direct Air Capture Facilities

The increasing number of direct air capture (DAC) facilities indicates that this technology is becoming an increasingly important tool for achieving climate goals. DAC offers more flexible positioning compared to source-based capture and has the potential to draw back historical emissions from the atmosphere. For the 2027 target, in addition to DAC projects, the commissioning of carbon capture facilities in sectors such as cement and steel, which are difficult to reduce, will increase total storage capacity. For example, Brevik cement facility in Norway is expected to start operating in 2024, aiming to store 400,000 tons of CO2 per year; projects like this are expected to contribute significantly to the overall capacity by 2027.

Forecast: Is A Multi-Million Ton Level Realistic By 2027?

Given the current project pipeline and rapid growth in the sector, the probability of achieving multi-million ton storage levels by 2027 is increasing. However, this depends not only on technical feasibility but also on political and financial stability. High costs and energy needs remain the main obstacles to scaling. Nevertheless, the fact that CCUS technologies are necessary to achieve climate goals is motivating governments and private companies to invest in this area. Consequently, given current trends and project timelines, achieving a storage capacity of several million tons in 2027 is considered a reasonable expectation.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. How Much CO2 Are Carbon Capture Facilities Currently Storing?

As of 2023, the total storage capacity of CCUS facilities operating worldwide is approximately around 50 million tons/year. However, most of this capacity comes from projects where captured CO2 is used rather than stored (e.g., for oil recovery). The capacity of pure storage-focused facilities is still in the several million ton range.

2. What Is The Difference Between Direct Air Capture (DAC) And Industrial Carbon Capture?

DAC captures CO2 directly from dispersed CO2 in the atmosphere; industrial capture captures CO2 from concentrated sources such as flue gases. DAC is more expensive but has the potential to reduce historical emissions. Industrial capture offers higher volumes at a lower cost.

3. Will Carbon Storage Costs Decrease By 2027?

Costs are expected to decrease, but this will largely depend on technological innovations and economies of scale. Experts predict that DAC costs could fall to $300-$400 per ton by 2030. By 2027, it is likely that costs will decrease by 20-30 percent due to the operating experience and efficiency gains from current projects.